M6 · L5Risk Management
When NOT to Trade
The most profitable decision you'll ever make is knowing when to stay out.
What This Means
There are specific conditions that make trading high-risk and low-probability: major news events (avoid 15 min before and after NFP, CPI, FOMC), end of month / end of quarter (institutional rebalancing creates fake moves), Mondays in the first 30 minutes (London gap fills), and Friday afternoons (low volume, unpredictable).
Visual
The Rule
No trade = a valid decision. The best traders miss more setups than they take.
COPY THIS
Do these steps exactly1
Every Sunday, check the economic calendar for the week
Use forexfactory.com — filter for red (high impact) events
2
Mark all red events on your trading calendar
3
For each red event: no trading 15 min before and 15 min after
4
Mark NFP (first Friday of each month) as NO TRADE DAY
5
Mark FOMC meeting days as NO TRADE DAY
6
Avoid the first 30 min of Monday's session
7
Avoid Friday after 2pm GMT
Common Mistake
High-impact news can move gold 100+ pips in seconds. If you're in a trade going into news, consider closing for a small profit rather than risking the spike.