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Fed Rate Cut Odds

The higher the cut probability → the more bullish the backdrop for gold. Source: CME FedWatch · Jun 2026
Why does this matter for gold? When the Fed cuts rates, cash earns less interest — so investors rotate into gold. A rate cut is gold-bullish. A hold or hike is gold-bearish near-term. Watch how probabilities shift after every CPI and NFP release.
FOMC MEETING
Jul 28–29
78% hold — watch closely
Hold rates78%
Cut 0.25%19%
Cut 0.50%3%
FOMC MEETING
Sep 15–16
▲ 55% cut chance — bullish gold
Hold rates45%
Cut 0.25%42%
Cut 0.50%13%
FOMC MEETING
Nov 4–5
▲ 72% cut chance — bullish gold
Hold rates28%
Cut 0.25%51%
Cut 0.50%21%
FOMC MEETING
Dec 15–16
▲ 82% cut chance — bullish gold
Hold rates18%
Cut 0.25%50%
Cut 0.50%32%